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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology: ES&T >Uncertainty Analysis in a Mechanistic Model of Bacterial Regrowth in Distribution Systems
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Uncertainty Analysis in a Mechanistic Model of Bacterial Regrowth in Distribution Systems

机译：分配系统中细菌再生机理模型中的不确定性分析

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摘要

The first generation of mechanistic models of bacterial regrowth in distribution systems(DS)provides insight into cause-and-effect relationships.However,the state of knowledge about the processes included in these models is insufficient to warrant deterministic predictions.Even if the process descriptions are reasonable,the uncertainty in values of key system constants limits predictions of bacterial growth.A new mechanistic model was developed to incorporate the accepted knowledge of physical,chemical,and biological processes with the hydraulic features in order to capture the unsteady state behavior of the DS.Sensitivity testing showed thatthe extent of bacterial regrowth was affected mainly by the rate constants for chlorine decay reactions in bulk water and on the pipe wall and by the maximum growth rate constant of attached bacteria.A simple hypothetical network was used to evaluate the effects of uncertainty in these three system constants by running 100 Monte Carlo simulations.Cumulative probability plots showed a wide range of predictions for concentrations of bacteria and chlorine in bulk water at various nodes in the DS.The magnitude of these concentrations and the range of values were greatly affected by water residence time to each node.Once the chlorine residual is depleted,bacterial growth is mainly influenced by the amount of substrate available.However,high values of the coefficients for the maximum growth rate of attached bacteria,the chlorine decay in bulk water,and the chlorine decay by wall reaction did not necessarily lead to the maximum bacterial growth at a given location.
机译：第一代分布系统（DS）中细菌再生的机理模型提供了对因果关系的洞察。然而，关于这些模型中包含的过程的知识状态不足以保证确定性预测。即使过程描述是合理的，关键系统常数值的不确定性也限制了对细菌生长的预测。开发了一种新的机理模型，将公认的物理、化学和生物过程知识与水力特征相结合，以捕捉 DS 的非稳态行为。敏感性测试表明，细菌再生的程度主要受散装水中和管壁上氯衰变反应的速率常数以及附着细菌的最大生长速率常数的影响。通过运行 100 个蒙特卡罗模拟，使用一个简单的假设网络来评估这三个系统常数中不确定性的影响。累积概率图显示了DS中不同节点的散装水中细菌和氯浓度的广泛预测。这些浓度的大小和值的范围受每个节点的水停留时间的极大影响。一旦余氯耗尽，细菌的生长主要受可用底物量的影响。然而，附着细菌的最大生长速率、大量水中的氯衰变以及壁反应引起的氯衰变等系数较高，并不一定导致给定位置细菌的最大生长。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology: ES&T》 |2004年第22期|5925-5931|共7页
  • 作者

    Francis A.DiGiano; Weidong Zhang;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,University of North Carolina,106 Rosenau Hall,CB 7400,Chapel Hill,North Carolina 27599-7431;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 英语
  • 中图分类 环境化学;
  • 关键词

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