Real‐Time Forecast of Catastrophic Landslides via Dragon‐King Detection

Qinghua Lei; Didier Sornette; Haonan YangSimon Loew

首页> 外文期刊>Geophysical Research Letters >Real‐Time Forecast of Catastrophic Landslides via Dragon‐King Detection

【24h】

Real‐Time Forecast of Catastrophic Landslides via Dragon‐King Detection

机译：

获取原文

获取原文并翻译 | 示例

掌桥外文数据库（机构版） >>

开具论文收录证明 >>

文献代查 >>

页面导航

摘要
著录项
相似文献
相关主题

摘要

Abstract Catastrophic landslides characterized by runaway slope failures remain difficult to predict. Here, we develop a physics‐based framework to prospectively assess slope failure potential. Our method builds upon the physics of extreme events in natural systems: the extremes so‐called “dragon‐kings” (e.g., slope tertiary creeps prior to failure) exhibit statistically different properties than other smaller‐sized events (e.g., slope secondary creeps). We develop statistical tools to detect the emergence of dragon‐kings during landslide evolution, with the secondary‐to‐tertiary creep transition quantitatively captured. We construct a phase diagram characterizing the detectability of dragon‐kings against “black‐swans” and informing on whether the slope evolves toward a catastrophic or slow landslide. We test our method on synthetic and real data sets, demonstrating how it might have been used to forecast three representative historical landslides. Our method can in principle considerably reduce the number of false alarms and identify with high confidence the presence of true hazards of catastrophic landslides.

著录项

来源
《Geophysical Research Letters》 |2023年第6期|n/a-n/a|共10页
作者
Qinghua Lei; Didier Sornette; Haonan YangSimon Loew;
展开▼
作者单位

ETH Zürich;

Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management;

展开▼
收录信息
原文格式 PDF
正文语种英语
中图分类地球物理学;
关键词
landslides; catastrophic failure; prediction; dragon‐king; phase diagram; risk;

相似文献

外文文献
中文文献
专利

1. Near real-time detection and forecasting of within-field phenology of winter wheat and corn using Sentinel-2 time-series data [J] . Liao Chunhua, Wang Jinfei, Shan BoShang JialiDong TaifengHe Yongjun ISPRS journal of photogrammetry and remote sensing . 2023,第2期

机译：Near real-time detection and forecasting of within-field phenology of winter wheat and corn using Sentinel-2 time-series data
2. Landslide detection in real-time social media image streams [J] . Ofli Ferda, Imran Muhammad, Qazi UmairRoch JulienPennington CatherineBanks VanessaBossu Remy Neural computing & applications . 2023,第24期

机译：Landslide detection in real-time social media image streams
3. New Data from National Research Council of Canada Illuminate Findings in Networks (Real-time Detection and Forecast of Flashovers By the Visual Room Fire Features Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks) [J] . Network Daily News . 2023,第29期

机译：New Data from National Research Council of Canada Illuminate Findings in Networks (Real-time Detection and Forecast of Flashovers By the Visual Room Fire Features Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks)
4. Real Java for real time - gain and pain [C] . Anders Nilsson, Torbjorn Ekman, Klas Nilsson International conference on Compilers, architecture, and synthesis for embedded systems . 2002

机译：Real Java for Real Time-收获与痛苦
5. 以體積像素加速之即時全域照明 =Real-Time Global Illumination using Voxel Cone Tracing [D] . Chiang, Yu-Ching. 2018

机译：以体积像素加速之即时全域照明 =Real-Time Global Illumination using Voxel Cone Tracing
6. Real-time retinal layer segmentation of OCT volumes with GPU accelerated inferencing using a compressed low-latency neural network [O] . Svetlana Borkovkina, Acner Camino, Worawee Janpongsri, 2020

机译：10月的Real-Time视网膜分段与GPU加速推断使用压缩低延迟神经网络的推动
7. Combining Taipan snake venom time/Ecarin time screening with the mixing studies of conventional assays increases detection rates of lupus anticoagulants in orally anticoagulated patients [O] . Moore Gary W 2007

机译：Combining Taipan snake venom time/Ecarin time screening with the mixing studies of conventional assays increases detection rates of lupus anticoagulants in orally anticoagulated patients
8. DII COE for Real Time: Becoming Reality; Journal article [R] . Robillard, L. M., Callison, H. R., Goo, M. B., 2001

机译：DII COE for Real Time：成为现实;杂志文章

Real‐Time Forecast of Catastrophic Landslides via Dragon‐King Detection

摘要

著录项

相似文献

相关主题

期刊订阅