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Zinc highlights

机译：锌亮点

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LME three-month zinc prices continued to decline through November, giving up almost 700 dollars/tonne during the past month to reach an official low of 2,206 dollars/tonne. Downward momentum gathered pace after key support at 2,720 dollars/tonne was broken. The Chinese government is planning to scrap a 5 percent VAT rebate on exports of Special High Grade (LME-deliverable) from January next year, and is believed to be considering the implication of a 5 percent export tax at the same time. The motivation is to limit the rapid expansion of the domestic smelting industry and cut over-production. The implications of this move for LME prices could be bearish to neutral over the remainder of this year, but bullish thereafter. Chinese exporters may rush to ship metal ahead of the change, but afterwards it is likely that exports would be tightly constrained, just like lead exports have been since a 10 percent tax was introduced earlier this year. Domestic Chinese zinc production growth would need to be reined in and the supply of metal to the western world would force prices up.
机译：伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期锌价格持续下跌，直到11月，过去一个月内下跌近700美元/吨，达到官方低点2,206美元/吨。在跌破关键支撑位2,720美元/吨后，下行势头有所加快。中国政府计划从明年1月起取消特级（LME交付品）出口的5％增值税退税，并且据信正在考虑同时征收5％的出口税。这样做的目的是限制国内冶炼行业的快速发展，并减少生产过剩。此举对伦敦金属交易所价格的影响在今年剩余时间内可能看空至中性，但此后看涨。中国出口商可能会在变更之前急于运送金属，但此后，出口可能会受到严格限制，就像自今年早些时候开始征收铅税以来一直对铅出口一样。中国国内的锌产量增长将受到抑制，而西方国家的金属供应将迫使价格上涨。

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