Supply-driven price surges are rarely sustained for long. The present surge has already sent prices to record levels in spite of slow growth in demand around the world and the possibility of a recession. When will the price turnaround come? Which market is likely to see the first declines? The HR coil market can serve as a model, as it is most open to international influences, although, there have been differences between the USA, the Eli and Japan, not only in cycle turning points but also, on occasion, in the direction of price movements. In this comparison, the EU chart tracks the euro price to avoid misleading fluctuations due to currency movements. The markets behave quite differently, as the divergences in price movements show. Since 2004 movements have been more in phase, but the US market has been more volatile. The US steel industry fears that the turning point will come when a new rush of imports arrives, but this may be sometime in coming.
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