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首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of earthquake engineering >Ground motion scenarios consistent with probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis. Application to Mainland Portugal
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Ground motion scenarios consistent with probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis. Application to Mainland Portugal

机译：地震动情景与概率地震灾害分解分析一致。申请葡萄牙大陆

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摘要

Probabilistic seismic hazard for Mainland Portugal was re-evaluated in order to perform its disaggregation. Seismic hazardwas disaggregated considering different spaces of random variables, namely, univariate conditional hazard distributions of M (magnitude), R (source-to-site distance) and ε (deviation of ground motion to the median value predicted by an attenuation model), bivariate conditional hazard distributions of M–R and X–Y (seismic source latitude and longitude) ormultivariate conditional hazard distributions of M–R–ε and M–(X–Y )–ε. The main objective of the present work was achieved, as it was possible, based on the modal values of the above mentioned distributions, to characterize the scenarios that dominate some seismic hazard levels of the 278 Mainland Portuguese counties. In addition, results of 4D disaggregation analysis, in M–(X–Y )–ε, pointed out the existence of one geographic location shared by the dominant scenario of most analyzed counties, especially for hazard levels correspondent to high return periods. Those dominant scenarios are located offshore at a distance of approximately 70km WSW of S. Vicente cape. On the other hand, the lower the return period the higher is the number of modal scenarios in the neighbourhood of the analyzed site. One may conclude that modal scenarios reproduce hazard target values in each site with great accuracy enabling the applications derived from those scenarios (e.g. loss evaluation) to be associated to a hazard level exceedance probability.
机译：为了进行分类，对葡萄牙大陆的概率地震灾害进行了重新评估。考虑到随机变量的不同空间来分解地震危险性，即M（震级），R（震源到站点的距离）和ε（地面运动相对于衰减模型预测的中值的偏差）的单变量条件危险分布，双变量M–R和X–Y（地震源纬度和经度）的有条件危害分布或M–R–ε和M–（X–Y）–ε的多元条件危害分布。根据上述分布的模态值，有可能实现当前工作的主要目标，以表征在278个葡萄牙内地县的某些地震灾害等级中占主导地位的情景。此外，在M–（X–Y）–ε中进行的4D分解分析结果指出，大多数分析县的主要情景都存在一个地理位置，特别是对应于高回报期的灾害等级。这些占主导地位的场景位于圣维森特海角西南偏西约70公里处的海上。另一方面，返回期越短，被分析站点附近的模态场景数量就越大。可能会得出结论，模态情景在每个站点中都能以很高的精度再现危害目标值，从而使从这些情景中衍生的应用（例如损失评估）能够与危害水平超过概率相关联。

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