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Acceptance criteria for urban dispersion model evaluation

机译：城市分散模型评估的验收标准

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The authors suggested acceptance criteria for rural dispersion models' performance measures in this journal in 2004. The current paper suggests modified values of acceptance criteria for urban applications and tests them with tracer data from four urban field experiments. For the arc-maximum concentrations, the fractional bias should have a magnitude < 0.67 (i.e., the relative mean bias is less than a factor of 2); the normalized mean-square error should be < 6 (i.e., the random scatter is less than about 2.4 times the mean); and the fraction of predictions that are within a factor of two of the observations (FAC2) should be > 0.3. For all data paired in space, for which a threshold concentration must always be defined, the normalized absolute difference should be < 0.50, when the threshold is three times the instrument's limit of quantification (LOQ). An overall criterion is then applied that the total set of acceptance criteria should be satisfied in at least half of the field experiments. These acceptance criteria are applied to evaluations of the US Department of Defense's Joint Effects Model (JEM) with tracer data from US urban field experiments in Salt Lake City (U2000), Oklahoma City (JU2003), and Manhattan (MSG05 and MID05). JEM includes the SCIPUFF dispersion model with the urban canopy option and the urban dispersion model (UDM) option. In each set of evaluations, three or four likely options are tested for meteorological inputs (e.g., a local building top wind speed, the closest National Weather Service airport observations, or outputs from numerical weather prediction models). It is found that, due to large natural variability in the urban data, there is not a large difference between the performance measures for the two model options and the three or four meteorological input options. The more detailed UDM and the state-of-the-art numerical weather models do provide a slight improvement over the other options. The proposed urban dispersion model acceptance criteria are satisfied at over half of the field experiments.
机译：作者在2004年的该期刊中提出了农村分散模型性能指标的接受标准。目前的论文提出了对城市应用的接受标准的修改值，并使用来自四个城市现场实验的示踪数据对它们进行了测试。对于最大电弧浓度，分数偏差的幅度应<0.67（即，相对平均偏差小于2倍）;归一化均方误差应小于6（即随机散布小于均值的2.4倍左右）;并且预测值在两个观测值（FAC2）之内的比例应大于0.3。对于必须始终定义阈值浓度的所有空间配对数据，当阈值是仪器定量限（LOQ）的三倍时，归一化绝对差应<0.50。然后应用总体标准，即在至少一半的现场实验中应满足全部接受标准。这些验收标准通过来自盐湖城（U2000），俄克拉荷马城（JU2003）和曼哈顿（MSG05和MID05）的美国城市现场实验的示踪数据，应用于美国国防部的联合效应模型（JEM）的评估。 JEM包括SCIPUFF色散模型，城市冠层选项和城市色散模型（UDM）选项。在每组评估中，测试了三种或四种可能的气象输入选项（例如，当地建筑物的最高风速，最近的国家气象局机场观测值或数值天气预报模型的输出）。结果发现，由于城市数据的自然变化较大，两个模型选项的性能指标与三个或四个气象输入选项的性能指标之间没有很大差异。与其他选项相比，更详细的UDM和最新的数字天气模型确实提供了一些改进。超过一半的现场实验都满足了拟议的城市分散模型验收标准。

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