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首页> 外文期刊>Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics >Improved tropical cyclone forecasts over north Indian Ocean with direct assimilation of AMSU-A radiances
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Improved tropical cyclone forecasts over north Indian Ocean with direct assimilation of AMSU-A radiances

机译：直接同化AMSU-A辐射，改善了北印度洋上空的热带气旋预报

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摘要

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) system are used to investigate the impact of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) radiances on the prediction of Indian Ocean tropical cyclones. Three tropical cyclones are selected for this study: cyclone Mala (April 2006; Bay of Bengal), cyclone Gonu (June 2007; Arabian Sea), and cyclone Sidr (November 2007; Bay of Bengal). For each case, observing system experiments are designed, by producing two sets of analyses from which forecasts are initialized. Both sets of analyses contain all conventional and satellite observations operationally used, including, but not limited to, Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) surface winds, Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) surface winds, Meteosat-derived atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs), and differ only in the exclusion (CNT) or inclusion (EXP) of AMSU-A radiances. Results show that the assimilation of AMSU-A radiances changes the large-scale thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere, and also produce a stronger warm core. These changes cause large forecast track improvements. In particular, without AMSU-A assimilation, most forecasts do not produce landfall. On the contrary, the forecasts initialized from improved EXP analyses in which AMSU-A data are included produce realistic landfall. In addition, intensity forecast is also improved. Even if the analyzed cyclone intensity is not affected by the assimilation of AMSU-A radiances, the predicted intensity improves substantially because of the development of warm cores which, through creation of stronger gradients, helps the model in producing intense low centre pressure.
机译：使用天气研究和预报（WRF-ARW）模型及其三维变分数据同化（3D-Var）系统来研究先进微波探测单元-A（AMSU-A）辐射对印度预报的影响海洋热带气旋。本研究选择了三个热带气旋：Mala旋风（2006年4月;孟加拉湾），Gonu旋风（2007年6月;阿拉伯海）和Sidr旋风（2007年11月;孟加拉湾）。对于每种情况，通过产生两组分析来设计观测系统实验，然后根据这些分析初始化预测。两组分析都包含可操作使用的所有常规和卫星观测值，包括但不限于快速散射仪（QuikSCAT）地表风，特殊传感器微波/成像仪（SSM / I）地表风，气象卫星衍生的大气运动矢量（AMV） ，仅在AMSU-A辐射的排除（CNT）或包含（EXP）方面有所不同。结果表明，AMSU-A辐射的同化改变了大气的大规模热力学结构，并产生了更强的暖芯。这些更改导致了较大的预测跟踪改进。特别是，如果没有AMSU-A的同化，大多数预测都不会产生登陆。相反，从改进的EXP分析（包括AMSU-A数据）中初始化的预测会产生实际的降落。此外，强度预报也得到改善。即使所分析的旋风强度不受AMSU-A辐射同化的影响，由于暖芯的发展，预测强度也会显着提高，暖芯通过形成更强的梯度有助于模型产生强烈的低中心压力。

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