• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Current Science: A Fortnightly Journal of Research >Characterization of the second wave of COVID-19 in India
【24h】

Characterization of the second wave of COVID-19 in India

机译：

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The second wave of COVID-19, which began in India around 11 February 2021, has hit the country hard with daily cases reaching nearly triple the first peak value as on 19 April 2021. The epidemic evolution in India is complex due to regional inhomogeneities and the spread of several coronavirus mutants. In this study, we characterize the virus spread in the ongoing second wave in India and its states until 19 April 2021, and also examine the dynamic evolution of the epidemic from the beginning of the outbreak. Variations in the effective reproduction number (R-t) are taken as quantifiable measures of virus transmissibility. R-t value for every state, including those with large rural populations, is greater than the self-sustaining threshold of 1. An exponential fit on recent data also shows that the infection rate is much higher than in the first wave. Subsequently, characteristics of COVID-19 spread are analysed region-wise, by estimating test positivity rates ( TPRs) and case fatality rates (CFRs). Very high TPR values for several states present an alarming situation. CFR values are lower than those in the first wave, but are recently showing signs of increase as the healthcare system is being over-stretched with the surge in infections. Preliminary estimates with a classical epidemiological model suggest that the peak for the second wave could occur around mid-May 2021, with daily count exceeding 0.4 million. The study strongly suggests that an effective administrative intervention is needed to arrest the rapid growth of the epidemic.

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号