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Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Messina Strait Area (Sicily, Italy)

机译：墨西拿海峡地区（意大利西西里岛）的概率性海啸危害评估

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摘要

The general modular Bayesian procedure is applied to provide a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for the Messina Strait Area (MSA), Italy. This is the first study in an Italian area where the potential tsunamigenic events caused by both submarine seismic sources (SSSs) and submarine mass failures (SMFs) are examined in a probabilistic assessment. The SSSs are localized on active faults in MSA as indicated by the instrumental data of the catalogue of the Italian seismicity; the SMFs are spatially identified using their propensity to failure in the Ionian and Tyrrhenian Seas on the basis of mean slope and mean depth, and using marine geology background knowledge. In both cases the associated probability of occurrence is provided. The run-ups were calculated at key sites that are main cities and/or important sites along the Eastern Sicily and the Southern Calabria coasts where tsunami events were recorded in the past. The posterior probability distribution combines the prior probability and the likelihood calculated in the MSA. The prior probability is based on the physical model of the tsunami process, and the likelihood is based on the historical data collected by the historical catalogues, background knowledge, and marine geological information. The posterior SSSs and SMFs tsunami probabilities are comparable and are combined to produce a final probability for a full PTHA in MSA.
机译：应用通用的模块化贝叶斯程序为意大利墨西拿海峡地区（MSA）提供概率海啸危害评估（PTHA）。这是在意大利地区进行的首次研究，该研究通过概率评估研究了由海底地震源（SSS）和海底质量破坏（SMF）引起的潜在海啸事件。如意大利地震活动目录中的仪器数据所示，SSS位于MSA的活动断层上。根据平均坡度和平均深度，并利用海洋地质背景知识，通过在爱奥尼亚海和第勒尼安海的破坏倾向在空间上识别SMF。在这两种情况下，都提供了相关的发生概率。在关键地点（过去是记录海啸事件的西西里东部和卡拉布里亚南部沿海的主要城市和/或重要地点）上计算了径流。后验概率分布结合了先验概率和在MSA中计算的似然度。先验概率是基于海啸过程的物理模型，而可能性是基于历史目录收集的历史数据，背景知识和海洋地质信息。后SSS和SMF海啸概率是可比较的，并且被合并以产生MSA中完整PTHA的最终概率。

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