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首页> 外文期刊>Local environment >Adaptation in situ or retreat? A multivariate approach to explore the factors that guide the peoples' preference against the impacts of sea level rise in coastal Bangladesh
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Adaptation in situ or retreat? A multivariate approach to explore the factors that guide the peoples' preference against the impacts of sea level rise in coastal Bangladesh

机译：原位适应还是退缩？采用多变量方法探讨指导人们偏爱孟加拉国沿海海平面上升影响的因素

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摘要

This paper is aimed to identify the factors that influence peoples' preference for adaptation against the impacts of sea level rise (SLR). A total of 285 respondents from three coastal villages in Bangladesh are randomly interviewed using a semistructured questionnaire. First, employing the principal component analysis various factors that influence adaptation preferences of people are identified. These factors are related to "demographic and social aspects", "wealth and economic standing ", "past coping and adaptive behaviour", "climate knowledge and information" and "spatial aspect" of life. What is common in these factors is their ability to influence peoples' vulnerability. Finally, the binomial logistic regression model is employed to compute the explanatory power of these factors to predict the respondents' preference for adaptation in situ over retreat or vice versa. Model findings are robust for two scenarios of SLR, i.e. 2050-2075 (LR X~2 = 133.65, pseudo-R~2 = 0.53, p < 0.001) and 2080-2100 (LR X~2 = 282.61, pseudo-R~2 = 0.85, p < 0.001). Therefore, it is concluded that to avoid relocation of substantial number of people initiative for encouraging adaptation in situ must be taken along side establishment of safe shelter, community radio service and campaign for raising climate awareness.
机译：本文旨在确定影响人们抵制海平面上升（SLR）影响的偏好的因素。来自孟加拉国三个沿海村庄的285名受访者使用半结构化问卷进行了随机访谈。首先，通过主成分分析，确定影响人们适应偏好的各种因素。这些因素与生活的“人口和社会方面”，“财富和经济地位”，“过去的应对和适应行为”，“气候知识和信息”以及“空间方面”有关。这些因素的共同点是它们影响人民脆弱性的能力。最后，采用二项式逻辑回归模型来计算这些因素的解释力，以预测受访者在原地适应于撤退方面的偏好，反之亦然。模型结果对于SLR的两种情况都是稳健的，即2050-2075（LR X〜2 = 133.65，伪R〜2 = 0.53，p <0.001）和2080-2100（LR X〜2 = 282.61，伪R〜 2 = 0.85，p <0.001）。因此，得出结论，为避免大量人口迁移，必须在建立安全庇护所，社区广播服务和提高气候意识运动的同时采取鼓励就地适应的倡议。

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