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首页> 外文期刊>atmospheric chemistry and physics >The impact of air pollutant and methane emission controls on tropospheric ozone and radiative forcing: CTM calculations for the period 1990-2030
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The impact of air pollutant and methane emission controls on tropospheric ozone and radiative forcing: CTM calculations for the period 1990-2030

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To explore the relationship between tropospheric ozone and radiative forcingwith changing emissions, we compiled two sets of global scenarios for theemissions of the ozone precursors methane (CH 4 ), carbon monoxide (CO),non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and nitrogen oxides(NO x ) up to the year 2030 and implemented them in two global ChemistryTransport Models. The "Current Legislation" (CLE) scenario reflects thecurrent perspectives of individual countries on future economic developmentand takes the anticipated effects of presently decided emission controllegislation in the individual countries into account. In addition, wedeveloped a "Maximum technically Feasible Reduction" (MFR) scenario thatoutlines the scope for emission reductions offered by full implementation ofthe presently available emission control technologies, while maintaining theprojected levels of anthropogenic activities. Whereas the resultingprojections of methane emissions lie within the range suggested by othergreenhouse gas projections, the recent pollution control legislation of manyAsian countries, requiring introduction of catalytic converters forvehicles, leads to significantly lower growth in emissions of the airpollutants NO x , NMVOC and CO than was suggested by the widely used andmore pessimistic IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) SRES(Special Report on Emission Scenarios) scenarios(Nakicenovic et al., 2000), which made Business-as-Usual assumptionsregarding emission control technology. With the TM3 and STOCHEM models weperformed several long-term integrations (1990-2030) to assess global,hemispheric and regional changes in CH 4 , CO, hydroxyl radicals, ozoneand the radiative climate forcings resulting from these two emissionscenarios. Both models reproduce broadly the observed trends in CO, andCH 4 concentrations from 1990 to 2002. For the "current legislation" case, both models indicate an increase ofthe annual average ozone levels in the Northern Hemisphere by 5ppbv, and upto 15ppbv over the Indian sub-continent, comparing the 2020s (2020-2030)with the 1990s (1990-2000). The corresponding higher ozone and methaneburdens in the atmosphere increase radiative forcing by approximately 0.2 Wm -2 .Full application of todayapos;s emissions control technologies,however, would bring down ozone below the levels experienced in the 1990sand would reduce the radiative forcing of ozone and methane to approximately-0.1 Wm -2 . This can be compared to the 0.14-0.47 Wm -2 increase ofmethane and ozone radiative forcings associated with the SRES scenarios.While methane reductions lead to lower ozone burdens and to less radiativeforcing, further reductions of the air pollutants NO x and NMVOC resultin lower ozone, but at the same time increase the lifetime of methane.Control of methane emissions appears an efficient option to reducetropospheric ozone as well as radiative forcing.

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