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Livestock & Meat

机译：牲畜和肉类

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Disease hits global exports: Animal disease outbreaks are affecting as much as a third of global meat exports, according to the FAO. It estimates that continuing import bans could lead to world trade losses of up to US$10 billion this year. 12 countries are currently facing export bans or market constraints as a result of avian flu or BSE. EU pig slaughtering decline: EU pig slaughterings are forecast to fall by 1% to 50.98 million head in the first quarter of this year, extending the decline in output which began in the second half of last year. Poland will become the EU's third largest pigmeat producer, behind Germany and Spain, in the EU-25. Russian pig market potential: The enlarged EU-25 will receive a higher import quota for pigmeat from Russia, increasing the trade potential. Last year Russian domestic production supplied only 75% of demand and the country is the second largest importer behind Japan. The market is dominated at the moment by Brazilian supplies. US beef output to fall: The average net income of US beef producers is expected to fall by $10 000 following the discovery of BSE, due to a combination of lower market prices and more expensive maize and soya. US beef output is expected to fall by 3% to 11.52 million tonnes this year.Cow slaughter will be down by around 15% but farmers will hold cattle for longer, raising the slaughter weight. Better outlook for Australasia: Japanese beef import demand recovered last year and Australia increased its shipments, but production was constrained by drought, Australian prices are high because domestic demand is also firm and Pacific Basin supplies low. Beef farm incomes should recover strongly. NZ livestock numbers have stabilised after significant changes over the decade to 2002 and good prices are being paid for NZ lamb on international markets.
机译：疾病影响全球出口：据粮农组织称，动物疾病的爆发影响了全球肉类出口的三分之一。它估计，持续的进口禁令可能导致今年世界贸易损失高达100亿美元。由于禽流感或疯牛病，目前有12个国家面临出口禁令或市场限制。欧盟生猪屠宰量下降：预计今年第一季度欧盟生猪屠宰量将下降1％，至5098万头，扩大了从去年下半年开始的产量下降。波兰将成为欧盟25国中仅次于德国和西班牙的欧盟第三大猪肉生产国。俄罗斯生猪市场潜力：扩大后的EU-25将从俄罗斯获得更高的猪肉进口配额，从而增加了贸易潜力。去年，俄罗斯国内生产仅满足需求的75％，该国是仅次于日本的第二大进口国。目前，巴西供应占主导地位。美国牛肉产量下降：发现疯牛病后，美国牛肉生产者的平均净收入预计将下降10,000美元，这是由于市场价格下降以及玉米和大豆价格上涨的综合原因。预计今年美国牛肉产量将下降3％，至1152万吨，公牛的屠宰量将下降约15％，但农民将持有牛的时间更长，从而增加了屠宰量。大洋洲的前景更好：去年日本牛肉进口需求回升，澳大利亚增加了出货量，但产量受到干旱的限制，澳大利亚价格居高不下，因为国内需求也很坚挺，太平洋盆地的供应较低。牛肉农场的收入应强劲恢复。新西兰的牲畜数量在到2002年的十年间发生了重大变化之后已经趋于稳定，并且正在国际市场上为新西兰羔羊支付高价。

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    《Livestock & Meat》 |2004年第214期|共34页
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