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首页> 外文期刊>Surveys in Geophysics: An International Review Journal of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences >Understanding and Modelling Rapid Dynamic Changes of Tidewater Outlet Glaciers: Issues and Implications
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Understanding and Modelling Rapid Dynamic Changes of Tidewater Outlet Glaciers: Issues and Implications

机译：理解和建模潮水出口冰川的快速动态变化：问题和启示

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Recent dramatic acceleration, thinning and retreat of tidewater outlet glaciers in Greenland raises concern regarding their contribution to future sea-level rise. These dynamic changes seem to be parallel to oceanic and climatic warming but the linking mechanisms and forcings are poorly understood and, furthermore, large-scale ice sheet models are currently unable to realistically simulate such changes which provides a major limitation in our ability to predict dynamic mass losses. In this paper we apply a specifically designed numerical flowband model to Jakobshavn Isbrae (JIB), a major marine outlet glacier of the Greenland ice sheet, and we explore and discuss the basic concepts and emerging issues in our understanding and modelling ability of the dynamics of tidewater outlet glaciers. The modelling demonstrates that enhanced ocean melt is able to trigger the observed dynamic changes of JIB but it heavily relies on the feedback between calving and terminus retreat and therefore the loss of buttressing. Through the same feedback, other forcings such as reduced winter sea-ice duration can produce similar rapid retreat. This highlights the need for a robust representation of the calving process and for improvements in the understanding and implementation of forcings at the marine boundary in predictive ice sheet models. Furthermore, the modelling uncovers high sensitivity and rapid adjustment of marine outlet glaciers to perturbations at their marine boundary implying that care should be taken in interpreting or extrapolating such rapid dynamic changes as recently observed in Greenland.
机译：格陵兰岛最近的潮水出口冰川急剧加速，变薄和后退，令人担忧它们对未来海平面上升的贡献。这些动态变化似乎与海洋和气候变暖平行，但对联系机制和强迫的了解却很少，而且，大型冰盖模型目前无法现实地模拟这种变化，这对我们预测动态的能力提供了主要限制。质量损失。在本文中，我们将专门设计的数值流带模型应用于格陵兰冰原的主要海洋出口冰川Jakobshavn Isbrae（JIB），并探讨和讨论了基本概念和新兴问题，以帮助我们理解和建模动力学。潮水出口冰川。该模型表明，增强的海洋融化能够触发观测到的JIB动态变化，但它严重依赖于产犊和终点撤退之间的反馈，因此失去了支撑。通过相同的反馈，其他强迫因素（例如减少冬季海冰持续时间）也可以产生类似的快速后退。这凸显了对产犊过程的鲁棒表示以及对预测性冰盖模型中海洋边界强迫的理解和实施的改进的需要。此外，该模型还揭示了海洋出口冰川对海洋边界处的扰动具有高度的敏感性和迅速的适应能力，这意味着在格陵兰岛最近观测到的这种快速动态变化的解释或推断中应格外小心。

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