Supporting research in a recession

Allport P

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Supporting research in a recession

机译：在衰退中支持研究

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I am writing in support of Philip Moriarty'sarticle on "The economic-impact fallacy"(June pp16-17). While we all welcome theincreases in UK research funding over thelast decade, there needs be to a recognitionthat this was required to compensate forprevious chronic underfunding and that,despite what Prime Minister GordonBrown has called a "knowledge economy",our overall spending still lags significantlybehind our competitors. Given the gulfbetween the rhetoric and the reality,articles by Moriarty and others reflect thesense of disbelief, which most of us feel,that the UK government now also seems towant to limit us all to the kind of short-term, near-market research that can neverhope to give the UK any sustainable leadwith respect to (for example) the emergingeconomies in the Far East.

机译：我写这篇文章是为了支持菲利普·莫里亚蒂（Philip Moriarty）关于“经济影响谬误”的文章（6月，第16-17页）。尽管我们都欢迎过去十年来英国研究经费的增加，但需要认识到，这是弥补先前长期资金不足所必需的，尽管首相戈登·布朗（GordonBrown）称其为“知识经济”，但我们的总体支出仍然大大落后于我们竞争对手。考虑到言辞和现实之间的鸿沟，莫里亚蒂等人的文章反映了难以置信的感觉，我们大多数人都认为，英国政府现在似乎也希望将我们所有人都局限于短期的，接近市场的研究，我们绝对不能希望英国在（例如）远东新兴经济方面给予任何可持续的领先优势。

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《Physics world》 |2009年第8期|共1页
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Allport P;
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正文语种 eng
中图分类物理学;
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respect; government; spending;

机译：尊重;政府;支出;

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7. The aim of the present work is to test the predictive power of the term spread in forecasting real economic growth rates and recession probabilities in Italy. According to the most recent literature, the relationship between the term spread and economic growth rates is modelled as a nonlinear one and specifically the Logistic Smooth Transition model is used, while a probit model is implemented to forecast recession probabilities. In both applications evidence supports a relevant informative content of the spread in Italy. [O] . Costanza Torricelli, Marianna Brunetti 100

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Supporting research in a recession

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