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Strategic Forum, Number 7: Population, Resources, and Conflict

机译：战略论坛，第7号：人口，资源和冲突

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In coming decades, population shifts and resource pressured population shifts aremore likely to exacerbate existing political conflicts rather than to directly trigger them. The balance between population, resources, and the environment is likely to improve in the next 20 years as a result of decreasing population growth rates and increasing attention to environmentally sustainable development. Tensions will persist, particularly over transborder resources such as rivers that flow between countries. One issue likely to involve the U.S. military more and more is mass movements of refugees. Population, resource, and environment trends provide little reason to expect a breakdown in public order in numerous states. It would therefore be inappropriate to structure the U.S. military to respond to chaotic conditions in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The issue in which the U.S. military is most likely to get involved is refugee relief, and that may well require increasing intervention in failed states before problems escalate out of control. Population, resources, and the environment pose serious problems for the U.S. and the world community. However, there is relatively little direct role for the military in addressing these problems.

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