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首页> 美国政府科技报告 >War in European History...Is It Really Over.
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War in European History...Is It Really Over.

机译：欧洲历史上的战争......它真的结束了吗？

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The recent dramatic changes in Europe have outstripped the United States' ability to clearly perceive what to expect in the future. There are those who foresee a potential Soviet backlash to Stalinism and therefore advocate continued containment strategies. There also are those who feel today's mood of amiability will last forever and are ready to cash in the defense budget for a peace dividend. Both sides can cite historical examples. Both sides also use the same threat factors (e.g. capabilities, intentions, vulnerabilities). But both sides are selective in what history they cite and they differ in how the threat formula should be applied. All this makes a big difference in how the past and the present are used to predict the future. Unfortunately, the analytical perspectives for both sides are usually dictated by what they want to see -- or are accustomed to seeing -- and what responsibilities they have to the nation. In reality, a clearer view is necessary. This paper outlines a broad perspective of present 'changes' in European history and how these might be used to assess their impact on the future. The author then suggests an equally broad military strategy. He argues that in times of uncertainty a nation needs to adopt Neustadt and May's concept of thinking in 'time as a stream,' accept uncertainty, and build strategies accounting for uncertainty by offering time-phased incremental changes. The changes in Europe over the past 40 years are discussed, including the introduction of nuclear weapons, the basing of U.S. forces in Europe, Soviet military power, French and British nuclear weapons, the European Community, the failure of communism, the rise of democracies, reunification of Germany, NATO/Warsaw Pact changes, Eastern European independence, Soviet withdrawal, and transnational communications. There are two phases to a recommended revised U.S. military strategy in Europe: a time of balanced force reduction, and flexible deterrence.

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