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Methods for Applying a Tracking Signal to Monitor Single Exponential Smoothing Forecasts

机译:应用跟踪信号监测单指数平滑预测的方法

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The tracking signal developed by Trigg which has gained wide acceptance is useful for monitoring single exponential smoothing forecasts. If forecasts become biased, the tracking signal will increase in absolute value indicating the possible need to change the smoothing constant which is the one adjustable parameter in single exponential smoothing. Two methods of applying the tracking signal to monitor exponential smoothing forecasts are discussed in the document. The method which was applied to depot workload forecasts is described in detail and the tables of confidence limits which are necessary to apply this method are given. (Author)

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