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THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF HUMIDITY An Upper-Air Humidity Diagnostic and Analysis Technique

机译：湿度的目标分析高空湿度诊断和分析技术

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In the Northern Hemisphere there are more than five times as many stations reporting surface-synoptic data as there are reporting radiosonde observations. A procedure has been developed to selectively diagnose upper-air humidity from surface observations and to utilize both diagnostic and radiosonde data in an objec¬tive analysis of dew-point spread using the successive-approximation technique.nNorthern-hemisphere surface-synoptic and radiosonde data from August through October 1964 are used to develop diagnostic relationships between surface-observed variables at a single station and the dew-point spread at the 850-, 700-, 500-, and 400-mb levels above that station for the warm season of the year. The approach consists of two steps: (1) the isolation within a decision-tree framework of those cases for which individual surface-observed variables yield highly reliable estimates of upper-level humidity, and (2) the application of a statistical technique (Regression Estimation of Event Probabilities) to the remaining cases to derive equations yielding probabilities of occurrence of specified categories of dew-point spread. This approach yields useful diagnostic information of variable quality.nThe incorporation of diagnostic data obtained from the cold season relation¬ships (derived in earlier work) into a humidity analysis at the 850-, 700- and 500-mb levels is tested using European surface and upper-air data for 22 observation times in February 1962. Sparse data conditions are simulated by withholding a portion of both surface and upper-air data.nRms errors and contingency table percent correct scores indicate that an improved analysis is obtained by weighting the diagnostic data relative to the radiosonde data. The most appropriate weighting is a function of the reliability of the diagnosis and the data density.

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