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Dissuasion, Deterrence, and Prevention: The 2010 QDR (and the Forthcoming Nuclear Posture Review)

机译：劝阻，威慑和预防：2010年QDR（以及即将进行的核态势评估）

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In light of the breadth of the subject matter, I have elected to focus on one key aspect of WMD policy--the issue of nuclear 'Global Zero,' or the idea that the United States should as part of an international treaty aspire to eliminate all nuclear weapons from Earth. The idea has formally been U.S. policy since the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty was signed in the late 1960s, of course, and was given added impetus by Ronald Reagan some two decades later as a long-term vision. Barack Obama rekindled the idea in his presidential campaign and then his April, 2009 speech in Prague. As such, it makes sense to take it seriously, even if all acknowledge that actual implementation of the idea is decades away (and indeed, even any beginning of a discussion on drafting treaty language is unlikely during Obama's presidency). As part of a book project to be published later this year by Princeton Press, and also as a part of a Lockheed-Martin sponsored nuclear weapons working group that I have directed over the past year with Tom Donnelly of AEI, I have been developing ideas on these subjects. The issues include how we should talk about Global Zero even today so as not to spook allies that our commitment to their security is somehow weakening, and how the serious aspiration for Global Zero might affect even near-term U.S. nuclear weapons policy at least at the margin. It is these sorts of issues to which I now turn; this is a working paper that should be understood to reflect initial thoughts and not my final work on the subject.

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