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Pakistan's Stability/Instability Complex: The Politics and Reverberations of the 2007 November Emergency

机译：巴基斯坦的稳定/不稳定情结：2007年11月紧急情况的政治和反响

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Since its independence in 1947, Pakistan has suffered a half-dozen coups d'etat, several armed independence movements, growing extremism and Islamicization within the population, and system-wide corruption and lack of political institutionalization. Yet, the question of its future continues to arise as it once again teeters on the brink of failed statehood. A crucial turning point for Pakistan, the November emergency encompassed multiple areas of state failure, including an out-of-control insurgency, loss of sovereignty within the border areas, and the seizing of both parliament and the judiciary. Despite these events, Pakistan has managed to bounce back from imminent state failure, engaging in elections and forming its current government in February 2008. Despite its claims, this new government is no exception to Pakistan's pattern -- its beginnings marred with decisions surrounding the constitutionality of the president's office and the Supreme Court, its inability to deal with an insurgency that has moved far enough inland to threaten Islamabad, and more recently, its growing economic crisis. These conflicting outcomes are at the heart of this article, where one argument claims that Pakistan is only now emerging from its colonial past, coming to terms with the contest between its Islamic and secular identities. Conversely, others argue that Pakistan is in decline -- a state increasingly incapable of addressing its internal political crises -- and the aftermath of the November 2007 emergency is an example highlighting Pakistan's state failure. What then explains Pakistan's oscillation between state failure and stability. Centered on the time frame after the November emergency, this article introduces the concept of the 'stability/instability paradox' to better explain Pakistan's oscillation and persistence as a state. Its conclusion analyzes a number of determinants for Pakistan's future stability and the security of the international system.

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