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首页> 美国政府科技报告 >Challenges to Persian Gulf Security: How Should the United States Respond. (Strategic Forum, Number 237, November 2008)
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Challenges to Persian Gulf Security: How Should the United States Respond. (Strategic Forum, Number 237, November 2008)

机译：波斯湾安全面临的挑战：美国应如何应对。 （战略论坛，第237期，2008年11月）

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Persian Gulf security challenges will increasingly pose difficult choices for the next administration. Iran's quest for regional preeminence, driven by the impulses of exceptionalism and self-sufficiency that are deeply engrained in the country's political psyche, will not slacken any time soon. Seeing such preeminence as its historic prerogative, Tehran still aspires to acquire a military posture, including nuclear capability, commensurate with that vision. Iran's neighbors, inevitably, are caught in the middle. A fragile Iraq will seek a middle ground between Iran and the United States because it needs the support of both to preserve its independence and territorial integrity. The Arab Gulf states, meanwhile, will try to restore a balance of power in the region -- their traditional preference -- while they seek new commitments to their security from the United States and new customers in Asia, in particular China and India. The United States faces three challenges in the Gulf. The toughest challenge by far is whether to engage Iran and, if so, how. The risks of doing so are not trivial, but there is also common ground to be claimed, especially on achieving a stable Iraq. The second delicate issue is what posture to take on reform within the Gulf states. Internal pressures for reform are growing, yet a heavy-handed approach can trigger local cynicism of U.S. motives and charges of double standards. The third challenge is how to build cooperation between the Gulf states and Iraq. Strengthening borders and redeveloping economic and security linkages can be an important down payment on better relations, but lingering suspicions will be hard to overcome. Iraq's interest in purchasing American-made aircraft (F-16s, according to press accounts) and recent use of the Iraqi army to reestablish control of public spaces inside the country have already raised concern among Iraq's Kurds and in Kuwait.

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