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首页> 美国政府科技报告 >India: Striding or Colliding into the Next Millennium
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India: Striding or Colliding into the Next Millennium

机译：印度：跨越或进入下一个千年

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Solving the Asian security equation and preventing intra regional conflict will pose great difficulties for US policy makers in the next century. Most forecasts portray China as the unchallenged winner both economically, politically and militarily. However, in the 21st century, Chinese regional dominance will be challenged by India. India cannot afford to maintain a lower tier status within Asia without risking disintegration of its internal union. As a potential hegemon and imperial rival to Chinese power within Asia, India's challenge could pose a threat to Asian stability in the coming century. India represents the world's largest democratic nation uniquely situated within the Indian Ocean. Traditionally, the US has considered India a strategic backwater. With an ethnically diverse and religiously split population, limited physical resources, and a large segment of the population in poverty, Indian strategists' primary concern is internal unity. Furthermore, Indian strategists perceive sustained economic development as the adhesive for managing the ethnic, historical and political forces that are fragmenting the Indian Union. Economic expansion has begun, but its full potential has been hampered by the splintering of India's core political organizations as well as traditionalists who want to retain centralized control over the economy. Economic expansion relates directly to India's strategy of enhancing its regional and international position, national security and strategic influence. From the Indian perspective, the status quo will not provide for long term national strength which equates to national unity. As India struggles to enhance its political and economic position, historical conflicts with Pakistan and China, combined with a suspicion concerning US policy in South Asia, counter Indian aims for sub regional dominance and greater regional prominence.

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