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Study on the Methods of Mid-Range Forecast for Plum Rains, Forecasting Group,Shanghai Meteoroligical Bureau

机译：上海市气象局预测组梅雨中期预报方法研究

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An investigation was made for the mid-range forecast of the heavy to torrentialrain at the beginning and during the period of the 'plum rains' by using synoptic circulation patterns and numerical statistics. It was found that the beginning of the rainy season is closely related with the seasonal northward displacement of the ridge line of the western North Pacific sub-tropical high between 125 deg 140 deg East at 500 mb. The forecast of early plum rains should emphasize the movement and variation of the subtropical high while forecasts of normal period or late plum rains should emphasize adjustments and movements of westerly short-wave troughs and ridges. It should be noted that the time of the occurrence of the heavy to torrential rain synoptic process during the plum rainy season in Shanghai is related to the region in which the interaction between the cold and warm air masses takes place, the characteristics of variations in their intensities as well as the variations of meteorological parameters at the station.

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