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首页> 美国政府科技报告 >Task Force on Integrated Energy and Environmental Planning: The Netherlands - Poland. Volume 2: Integrated economy-energy-environment policy in Poland: A computable general equilibrium modelling approach
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Task Force on Integrated Energy and Environmental Planning: The Netherlands - Poland. Volume 2: Integrated economy-energy-environment policy in Poland: A computable general equilibrium modelling approach

机译：综合能源和环境规划工作组：荷兰 - 波兰。第2卷：波兰的综合经济 - 能源 - 环境政策：可计算的一般均衡建模方法

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The current study examines the interactions between the energy sector, the rest of the economy and the environment in Poland. This is done by means of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, in which three energy sectors are distinguished and special attention is paid to the consequences of environmental policy. Due to the ongoing political and economic reforms in Poland important components of energy demand, such as the economic structure, energy efficiency and life style, will undergo major changes in the coming decades, and, consequently, will affect the future demand for energy. Because reliable energy demand scenarios are of utmost importance to the formulation of energy policy, it was decided to develop a CGE model to be able to analyze the interactions between the economy, the energy sector and the environment in Poland. The CGE model was employed to construct four alternative scenarios for the development of the Polish economy up to the year 2015: (1) the base-case scenario reflects the situation when no new policy measures will be implemented during the planning horizon; (2) the oil price scenario examines the impacts on the Polish economy of an considerable increase of the world market oil price; (3) the environmental tax scenario analyses the impact of a tax imposed on coal and fuel and (4) the environmental limit scenario shows how upper limits on the levels of emissions affect the economy. The scenario results show that the base and bulk goods industries in Poland have only limited growth potential and are very sensitive to changes in the world market price for oil. Another striking result is that the long term environmental objectives of the Polish government regarding the reduction of SO(sub 2) and NO(sub 2) can be achieved without severe consequences for the economic development. 13 figs., 14 tabs., 5 appendices, 21 refs.

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