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首页> 美国政府科技报告 >Problems in the Economic Evaluation of Proposed Projects in Emerging Energy Technologies.
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Problems in the Economic Evaluation of Proposed Projects in Emerging Energy Technologies.

机译：新兴能源技术项目经济评价存在的问题。

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Historically, deterministic estimates of unit product or life-cycle costs made early in the R and D program tend to overstate performance and underestimate costs, even after adjusting the latter for inflation. Much of this misestimation can be attributed to design uncertainty caused by incomplete knowledge of the physics, chemistry, or engineering of the process or system. Developer optimism in picking values for key process design attributes and hardware costs is also a major factor. It is proposed that probabilistic multivariable risk/uncertainty analysis coupled with specially constructed process or system computer models can improve the quality of early cost projections. Such a model consists of parametric cost-scaling algorithms coupled to a phenomenological performance model of the process or system of interest. If properly constructed, this model essentially redesigns and re-estimates the process for any set of reasonable uncertain inputs. Guidelines are presented for constructing such models and performing risk/uncertainty analysis thereupon are presented. The treatment of special modeling and estimating problems encountered in particular DOE-funded energy-related technologies is discussed. 15 refs., 6 figs. (ERA citation 14:022281)

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