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MASTER: A Forecast Model of Regional Economic Activity (Metropolitan and State Economic Regions)

机译:masTER:区域经济活动预测模型(大都市和国家经济区)

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The Metropolitan and State Economic Regions (MASTER) model is presented. This model was constructed by researchers at Pacific Northwest Laboratory in response to the need for a national multiregion model of economic activity in substate areas which can be used for forecasting, planning, and policymaking in energy-related fields. MASTER forecasts economic activity in all 268 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) and 48 non-SMSA Rest-of-State-Areas (ROSAs) in the continental United States. Employment in each of twelve sectors is determined in part by local electricity and natural gas prices. Local construction prices, which are also under the influence of energy policymakers via building energy-efficiency standards, determine construction activity and hence economic activity. Disaggregation in the industrial employment and construction blocks of the model is fine enough for the model to drive the Oak Ridge Energy Demand Models and other demand models. The remainder of the paper describes the MASTER model, discusses potential applications, and assesses impacts of three hypothetical energy-related events in each of nine SMSAs. (ERA citation 08:049236)

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