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首页> 美国政府科技报告 >Development and Application of Terrestrial Food Chain Models to Assess Health Risks to Man and Releases of Pollutants to the Environment
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Development and Application of Terrestrial Food Chain Models to Assess Health Risks to Man and Releases of Pollutants to the Environment

机译：开发和应用陆地食物链模型来评估人类健康风险和污染物排放到环境中

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This paper reviews the development and application of mathematical models used to predict the terrestrial food chain transport of pollutants of potential importance to human health. A distinction is made between models developed specifically for assessment applications and models which may function as research tools. Differentiation is also made between models whose structure is based on steady-state relationships among food chain compartments and dynamic models developed to simulate food chain and pollutant kinetics. The strengths and weaknesses of these models are related to the needs of the model user, the availability of relevant data for parameter quantification, and the feasibility for model validation. For assessment purposes, an optimum level of structural complexity will be achieved when all parameters are readily measurable and predictive error due to unforeseen correlations among parameters is small. The optimum level of simplification, however, will be determined by model validation results and the ease of model implementation. Most examples are derived from models used to assess the terrestrial food chain transport of radionuclides because assessment methodologies for other types of pollutants are only at an early stage of development. It is concluded that current limitations in parameter quantification and model validation will probably restrict most assessment applications of terrestrial food chain models to a type of screening calculation. However, once pollutant releases actually occur, environmental monitoring will be necessary to ensure that potential model misprediction does not result in unacceptable consequences. (ERA citation 81:026192)

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