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Analysis of Changes in National Energy Forecasts During the 1970s

机译：20世纪70年代国家能源预测变化分析

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An analytical survey was made of the major issues which have led to modifications in national energy forecasts during the past decade. Historical developments and growth trends in energy use prior to the 1970s are reviewed briefly in this report, as are the particular events of the 1970s which have begun to reshape these trends for the future. Several energy policy studies made during the past decade were also examined, and some of the major issues in controversy affecting prospects for future growth of energy supply and demand are identified. Some typical energy forecast-scenarios for the year 2000 are then discussed in relation to these issues. It is shown that a wide span of possible supply and demand growth scenarios can result, depending on assumptions concerning these issues. Finally, prospective trade-offs between expanding fuels supply and moderating total energy consumption for the year 2000 were examined quantitatively. Providing no additional major restrictions or disruptions occur in supplies of petroleum and natural gas, the analysis indicates that coal and nuclear power can compensate for scarcities in these fuels and meet total energy requirements, after accounting for probable impacts of energy conservation and slower growth of the economy. 40 refs., 10 figs., 10 tabs. (ERA citation 11:007338)

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