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Analyzing the Reprocessing Decision: Plutonium Recycle and Nuclear Proliferation. Final Report

机译：分析后处理决策：钚再循环和核扩​​散。总结报告

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The United States decision to defer indefinitely the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel is examined in this thesis. Bayesian decision analysis is applied to develop a rational framework for the assessment of alternatives. Benefits and costs for each alternative are evaluated and compared in dollar terms to determine the optimal decision. A fuel cycle simulation model is constructed to assess the economic value of reprocessing light water reactor (LWR) spent fuel and recycling plutonium. In addition, a dynamic fuel substitution model is used to estimate the economic effects of the reprocessing decision's influence on the introduction date of the liquid metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR). The analysis of benefits and costs is extended to include the social costs due to technological risks, such as accident risk, nuclear theft and/or sabotage, and international nuclear proliferation. These social costs are expressed in dollar terms for comparison with the conventional economic values. Results of the analysis indicate that the domestic social costs are less than the economic benefits by more than three orders of magnitude, and that the permit option dominates those of delay or prohibit. An examination of proliferation risk indicates a factor of approximately 7 between cost-benefits. Thus, on the basis of this analysis, it appears that to permit reprocessing is optimal over delaying or prohibiting the technology. (ERA citation 04:023462)

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