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Cyclical Behavior of Income Transfer Programs: A Case Study of the Current Recession

机译：收入转移计划的周期性行为：当前经济衰退的个案研究

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The paper examines the extent to which fluctuations in the costs and caseloads of a variety of transfer programs are related to fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. The empirical relationships uncovered are applied to the current recession, and the impact of the recession on the level of expenditures and on the number of recipients of those transfer programs is estimated. The extent to which these transfer programs mitigate the hardships caused by the income declines associated with recession is examined. Data indicate that the costs and caseloads of most major transfer programs fluctuate cyclically. Thus, the transfer system has become, along with the tax system, a major contributor to automatic fiscal stabilization. At the end of the recession, most transfer program expenditures are expected to fall substantially from their current historically high levels, at least in real terms. Finally, in the aggregate, the transfer system is shown to go far toward replacing the earnings lost as a result of the recession. However, the coverage of the programs tends to be uneven.

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