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Anaylsis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies.

机译:可再生一体化研究负荷预测数据的分析与综合。

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As renewable energy constitutes a greater portion of the generation fleet, so does the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. Load forecasting is an area of renewable energy integration studies that is often neglected, chiefly because of a lack of available data. In this research, the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day was examined. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

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