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Incorporating uncertainties into risk assessment with an application to the exploratory studies facilities at Yucca Mountain

机译：将不确定性纳入风险评估，并应用于尤卡山的探索性研究设施

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A methodology that incorporates variability and reducible sources of uncertainty into the probabilistic and consequence components of risk was developed. The method was applied to the north tunnel of the Exploratory Studies Facility at Yucca Mountain in Nevada. In this assessment, variability and reducible sources of uncertainty were characterized and propagated through the risk assessment models using a Monte Carlo based software package. The results were then manipulated into risk curves at the 5% and 95% confidence levels for both the variability and overall uncertainty analyses, thus distinguishing between variability and reducible sources of uncertainty. In the Yucca Mountain application, the designation of the north tunnel as an item important to public safety, as defined by 10 CFR 60, was determined. Based on this work, the north tunnel does not fall under the items important to public safety designation for the event studied.

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