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首页> 美国政府科技报告 >End-use energy modelling for developing countries. A review of the end-use approach for projecting long-term energy use and GHG emissions
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End-use energy modelling for developing countries. A review of the end-use approach for projecting long-term energy use and GHG emissions

机译：发展中国家的最终用途能源建模。审查用于预测长期能源使用和温室气体排放的最终用途方法

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摘要

The end-use approach to the estimation of long-term energy demand and supply and the consequent emission of greenhouse gases are described. The approach consists of classifying energy demand according to its major end uses. Energy use is linked to the service provided by an end-use. The approach begins with the most detailed level of end-use and combines the detailed energy use into a more aggregated energy projection at the sectoral level. The sectoral energy use is added to yield the total energy demand by fuel type. The supply of primary energy is estimated on the basis of the demand for individual fuels and electricity for each major end use in each economic sector. The end-use approach uses projections of economic activity by sector, population, urbanization, electrification, etc. as determinants of energy demand. An approach which uses international comparisons as a basis for determining the future consumption and saturation of material goods, e.g., the saturation of consumer goods, such as appliances and cars is explained. This method assumes that developing countries will eventually reach income levels similar to those enjoyed by more developed economics. Factors for example, such as distances travelled per car, fuel use per kilometer and levels of car ownership determine the energy demand for automobiles. The availability of fuels and their relative prices as influenced by government policies determine the choice of fuels. Better methods of regular bottom-up data collection through end-use surveys need to be standardized for improved understanding and projections of energy demand in a developing country. End-use analysis will benefit energy planners and forecasters by helping to design targeted policies to improve the efficiency of energy supply. (AB) 38 refs.

著录项

  • 作者

    Sathaye, JA;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 1995
  • 页码 1-48
  • 总页数 48
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 工业技术;
  • 关键词

    EDB/292000;

    机译：EDB / 292000;

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