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Creation of a Technology Impact Forecasting Environment for an Intra-Continental Civil Aircraft

机译：为洲际民用航空器创建技术影响预测环境

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This presentation discusses the technology, and the challenges involved in creating a new intra-continental aircraft system. There are four possible designs for this system of aircraft: (1) the high-speed civil transport, (2) a large capacity subsonic transport, (3) blended wing-body high capacity transport, (4) intracontinental, conventional subsonic transport. Using the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) technique the researchers performed a Most Probable Point analysis to generated a cumulative distribution function for a given response function in each of the studied air craft design models. This technique approximates Monte Carlo techniques in the design analysis and does so with significant savings in time and cost. The objective of this study was to arrive at evaluation criteria for assessing the success of a system design, which includes performance and economic design requirements and captures the needs of all pertinent parties and to arrive at metrics which would validate the success of the evaluation criteria. Using NASA Ames' point designs these were expanded into design spaces. Feasibility and viability assessments of the design spaces were performed. Using the 1997 baseline of technical feasibility, the application of new technologies in the design resulted in improvements as measured by the objective and contraints. Not all of the 2020 targets could be met. A proof of concept technology impact forecast environment was created which can identify the impact of proposed technologies for assessing the goal of affordability.

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