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Prediction of Annual Rainfall at Fortaleza, Ce, Brazil in Recent Years

机译：近年来巴西Ce，Fortaleza年降水量预测

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Power Spectrum Analysis of Fortaleza annual rainfall data for 1849-1976 indicated periodicities T = 12.9 and 25.1 years significant at a 5 sigma (a priori) level and in addition, T = 2.07, 3.63, 4.84, 5.69, 10.1, 18.0, and 61.0 at a 2 sigma (a priori) level. Using all these, the predicted values for 1977-86 match well with the observed values. In future, a minor drought during 1993-96 and a major drought during 2003-12 are envisaged. However, the above periodicities explain only approximately 62% variance, implying approximately 38% random component. The standard errors for predicted flood and drought rainfalls are sigma = +/- 400 mm and sigma = +/- 300 mm, respectively. Hence, drought intervals could have a few years of normal (or even above-normal) rainfalls. Similarly droughts could occur during expected flood intervals. A transient QBO (T = 2-3 years) could complicate matters further.

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