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Method for Testing Whether Model Predictions Fall within a Prescribed Factor ofTrue Values, with an Application to Pesticide Leaching

机译:测试模型预测是否属于真实值的规定因素的方法,适用于农药浸出

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A quantitative method is described for testing whether model predictions fallwithin a specified factor of true values. The technique is based on classical theory for confidence regions on unknown population parameters and can be related to hypothesis testing in both univariate and multivariate situations. A capability index is defined that can be used as a measure of predictive capability of a model, and its properties are discussed. The testing approach and the capability index should facilitate model validation efforts and permit comparisons among competing models. An example is given for a pesticide leaching model that predicts chemical concentrations in the soil profile. (Copyright (c) 1990 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.)

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