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Subjective-Probability-Based Scenarios for Uncertain Input Parameters:Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, December 1990

机译：基于主观概率的不确定输入参数情景：平流层臭氧消耗，1990年12月

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The paper presents and applies a method to choose sets of input conditions(scenarios) that efficiently represent knowledge about the joint probability distribution of inputs. A simple score function approximately relating inputs to a policy-relevant output--in this case, globally averaged stratospheric ozone depletion--is developed. The probability density function for the score-function value is analytically derived from a subjective joint probability density for the inputs. Scenarios are defined by selected quantiles of the score function. Using this method, scenarios can be systematically selected in terms of the approximate probability distribution function for the output of concern, and probability intervals for the joint effect of the inputs can be readily constructed.

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Hammitt, J. K.;
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年度 1990
页码 1-18
总页数 18
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类工业技术;
关键词
Ozone depletion; Stratosphere; Computerized simulation; Mathematical models; Riskassessment; Probability theory; Probability density functions; Monte Carlo method; Regulations; Emission; Reprints;

机译：臭氧消耗;平流层;计算机模拟;数学模型;风险评估;概率论;概率密度函数;蒙特卡罗方法;法规;排放;重印;

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1. The Impact of Ozone-Depleting Substances on Tropical Upwelling, as Revealed by the Absence of Lower-Stratospheric Cooling since the Late 1990s [J] . Journal of Climate . 2017,第7期

机译：臭氧消耗物质对热带上升的影响，自20世纪90年代末以来缺乏较低平流层冷却揭示
2. Mechanisms of the Stratospheric Ozone Depletion:II. Chain Length and the Rate of Ozone Depletion in the Main Stratospheric Cycles [J] . I. K. Larin, M. L. Kuskov Russian journal of physical chemistry, B. . 2013,第5期

机译：平流层臭氧消耗的机理：II。平流层主循环中的链长和臭氧消耗速率
3. Change in ozone depletion rates beginning in the mid 1990s: trend analyses of the TOMS/ SBUV merged total ozone data, 1978-2003 [J] . J. W.Krzyscin Annales Geophysicae . 2006,第2期

机译：从1990年代中期开始臭氧消耗率的变化：TOMS / SBUV的趋势分析合并了1978-2003年的总臭氧数据
4. SPRINGTIME STRATOSPHERIC OZONE OVER MARAMBIO, ANTARCTIC DURING 1990-1998 Analysis of Ozone Sonde Data In Relation To the Phase and Position of Polar Vortex [C] . J.A. KARHU, P. TAALAS, M. GINZBURG NATO Advanced Study Institute on chemistry and radiation changes in the ozone layer . 2000

机译：Marambio的春天平流层臭氧，1990-1998期间的南极分析臭氧Sonde数据与极地涡旋的相位和位置相关
5. An Investigation of the Distribution of Ozone-depleting Substances in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere [D] . Kolonjari, Felicia. 2019

机译：上层和较低平流层臭氧消耗物质分布的调查
6. When science and politics come together: From depletion to recovery of the stratospheric ozone hole: [O] . Claudia Mohr 2021

机译：当科学和政治聚集在一起时：从耗尽到恢复平流层臭氧孔：
7. Proposal for a Council Decision concerning the conclusion of the amendment to the Montreal Protocol on substances that deplete the ozone layer as adopted in June 1990 in London by the Parties to the Protocol. COM (90) 589 final, 12 December 1990 [O] . 1990

机译：关于议定书的决定的提案，该决定涉及议定书缔约方于1990年6月在伦敦通过的关于消耗臭氧层物质的“蒙特利尔议定书”修正案。 COm（90）589最终，1990年12月12日

Subjective-Probability-Based Scenarios for Uncertain Input Parameters:Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, December 1990

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