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首页> 美国政府科技报告 >Accident Prediction Model Development for Unsignalized Intersections: Final Report
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Accident Prediction Model Development for Unsignalized Intersections: Final Report

机译：无信号交叉口事故预测模型开发：最终报告

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摘要

An intuitive methodology of developing injury, property-damage only (PDO) and fatal accident models for unsignalized intersections based on the Traffic Accident Surveillance and Analysis System (TASAS) in California is Illustrated. A fairly new grouping and classifying technique called Classification and Regression Trees (CART) was used as a building block for developing prediction models. The proposed methodology includes a 3-Level prediction procedure with a 'tree' structure for easy interpretation and applications. It includes an adjustment procedure for different reporting levels of PDO accidents in different police jurisdictions. It also describes some applications of accident prediction models and some areas where future automation of the TASAS system could be made. An integrated traffic accident system for prediction, surveillance, improvement, evaluation, and monitoring studies is discussed. Techniques discussed for such a system include computer intensive tree building methods, knowledge-based expert systems, randomization experiments.

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