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Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections

机译：年度能源展望回顾性回顾：2011年评估和先前参考案例预测

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy production, consumption and prices each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). Each year, EIA also produces this AEO Retrospective Review document, which presents a comparison between realized energy outcomes and the Reference case projections included in previous editions of the AEO. The purpose of the AEO Retrospective is to demonstrate how the AEO projections have tracked actual energy indicators, enable trend analysis, and inform discussions of potential improvements to the AEO. The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given assumptions and methodologies. The AEO Reference case projection assumes trends that are consistent with historical and current market behavior, technological and demographic changes, and current laws and regulations. The potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards are not reflected in the Reference case projections. Thus, the AEO Reference case provides an unbiased baseline that can be used to analyze potential new policies or legislative initiatives. The discussion and analysis in each years AEO primarily focus on a Reference case, lower and higher economic growth cases, and lower and higher oil price cases. In addition to these standard cases, numerous alternative cases have been included in recent AEOs. Readers are encouraged to review the full range of cases, which address many of the uncertainties inherent in long-term projections. . Thus, the AEO Reference case provides an unbiased baseline that can be used to analyze potential new policies or legislative initiatives.

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