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A New Measure of Unemployment, Based on Family Hardship, and Its Relationship to Inflation

机译:基于家庭困境的失业新举措及其与通货膨胀的关系

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A hardship-based measure of unemployment was calculated for the years 1967-79, based on Work Experience Survey data, including only unemployment in families with incomes below twice the poverty level. An unemployment rate so defined is lower than the official unemployment rate and rises less during this period. The new measure was tested against conventional measures--the official unemployment rates for all workers and for prime-age males, Perry's demographically-weighted rate, and the employment-population ratio--in disequilibrium and equilibrium models of the macro labor market. Two versions of the disequilibrium model, in which unemployment affects wage change, were estimated--an inclusive model and a stripped-down specification with only unemployment and price change. Two equilibrium models, in which misperceptions of inflation change the amount of labor supplied, were estimated. One version used actual, survey-measured price expectations; the other followed Barro's specification and used his measure of unexpected money growth.

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