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Technological Uncertainty in Policy Analysis: 1982 Final Report on a Case Study Directed at Exploring Long-Range Transport and Possible Health Impacts of Sulfur Air Pollution from Coal-Fired Power Plants

机译：政策分析中的技术不确定性：1982年案例研究的最终报告，旨在探索燃煤电厂硫磺空气污染的远距离运输和可能的健康影响

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The problem of estimating potential health impacts from the sulfur emissions from large, coal-fired plants is used as a vehicle from which to develop and demonstrate a variety of techniques for characterizing and dealing with uncertainties in risk assessment. Psychological literature on expert judgement is reviewed and a protocol for eliciting judgment from experts about the value of certain coefficients in the form of subjective probability distributions is developed. Long-range, sulfur mass balance models are constructed and analyzed to determine the relative impact of the uncertainty expressed by individual experts and the variation between experts on conclusions concerning long-range, annual average sulfur mass balance in power plant plumes. Judgments of leading health effects experts concerning the possible health impacts of sulfur air pollutants of coal-fired plants are included. A set of quantitative health damage models is constructed and compared and a set of decision-theoretic concepts is developed. It is found that in estimating the annual sulfur mass balance in power plant plumes, uncertainty expressed by individual experts is always comparable to and sometimes greater than the uncertainty which results from differences between experts.

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Morgan, M. G. ; Amaral, D. A. L. ; Henrion, M. ; Morris, S. C.;
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年度 1982
页码 1-312
总页数 312
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类工业技术;
关键词
Air pollution; Sulfur; Public health; Transport properties; Plumes; Combustion products; Industrial wastes; Risk; Mathematical models; Electric power plants; Dosage; Sulfates; Mass; Population(Statistics);

机译：空气污染;硫;公共卫生;运输特性;羽状物;燃烧产物;工业废物;风险;数学模型;电厂;剂量;硫酸盐;质量;人口（统计）;

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机译：燃煤电厂附近的空气污染研究。威斯康星州电厂影响研究

Technological Uncertainty in Policy Analysis: 1982 Final Report on a Case Study Directed at Exploring Long-Range Transport and Possible Health Impacts of Sulfur Air Pollution from Coal-Fired Power Plants

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