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How Slower Growth in the Labor Force Could Affect the Return on Capital. Background Paper

机译：劳动力增长速度有多慢会影响资本回报率。背景文件

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The labor force in the United States is expected to grow at a significantly reduced rate in coming decades for several reasons: a long-term decline in fertility rates, the leveling off of a substantial rise in women's labor force participation, and the aging and retirement of large numbers of people from the baby-boom generation. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the growth of the labor force, which averaged 1.6 percent per year from 1950 to 2007, will slow to about half a percent per year over the next 20 years. Most mainstream economic models predict that the slowdown is likely to boost the ratio of capital to labor and thereby make the rate of return on capital--as reflected in the rate of interest on bonds or other borrowing, and the rate of return on stocks--lower than might otherwise be expected. Wages will be higher than would otherwise be the case for the same reason, although that effect will be much smaller than the increase in wages that is projected to result from productivity growth.

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