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Used Car Price Index: A Checkup and Suggested Repairs Working paper

机译：二手车价格指数：检查和建议修理工作文件

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摘要

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has published the used car price index since December 1952 as part of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). As its 48th birthday approaches, the used car price index merits a timely review for at least two reasons. First, compared to the new car price index, the used car price index is akin to an ignored stepchild, receiving less scrutiny but deserving of more attention. Second, there are nagging doubts and misgivings within the BLS about accuracy of the used car price index. These doubts arise from the suspect time series behavior of the used car index, related in part to the 'higher' mean growth rate but especially to the 'excess' volatility of the used car price index. Possible underlying causes of this questionable behavior are numerous. Some candidates come to mine. The questionable behavior of the used car price index could be an undesirable byproduct of the sampling procedures adopted by the BLS. Or, could the source of the price information that the BLS relies on be the culprit. What role has the treatment of quality improvements played in explaining the suspect behavior of the used car price index. While any or all of these could be the underlying causes of the questionable behavior and should not be slighted, could the observed 'excess' volatility of the used car price index be a real phenomenon. Used car markets might have less elastic supply curves and experience larger demand shocks compared to those observed in the new car and other durable good markets. This alliance of a less elastic supply curve and larger demand shocks could explain the observed 'excess' volatility of used car prices. The paper opens with a brief history of the used car price index. Section II establishes some basic facts about the used car price index. How fast has the used car price index grown over time and how volatile has the index been. Because there is no obvious way to assess volatility on an absolute scale, used car price volatility must be judged on a comparative basis. Since the used and new car markets are interrelated, a natural comparison is between the mean growth rate and volatility of the used car price index with that of the new car price index and also with price indices for other products known for their volatility. Section II presents some answers to these questions.

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