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首页> 美国政府科技报告 >Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World. Water Futures:Assessment of Long-Range Patterns and Problems
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Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World. Water Futures:Assessment of Long-Range Patterns and Problems

机译：世界淡水资源综合评价。水资源期货：长期模式和问题的评估

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Water requirements to the year 2025 at regional and national levels are examinedin order to assess emerging problems of stress on freshwater resources. Long-range water patterns will be governed by such future factors as population, economic scale and structure, technology, consumption patterns, agricultural practices and policy approaches. This study focuses on Conventional Development Scenarios which are driven by: (1) commonly used demographic and economic projections, (2) a convergence hypothesis that developing region consumption and production practices will evolve gradually in a globalizing economy toward those of industrialized regions, (3) an assumption of gradual technological advance without major surprises, and (4) the absence of major policy changes affecting water needs or use. The Conventional Development Scenarios are not predictions. Their power is to reveal the consequences of common assumptions about the future and of policy complacency. We learn that such scenarios would bring a continuing deterioration of water conditions in those areas that are already water scarce, and an extension of new water stress conditions in many places throughout the world. Conventioanl Development Scenarios do not represent a satisfactory future when judge on sustainable development criteria. However they are not inevitable. It is suggested how we might envision more sustainable and desirable futures, and act to achieve them. (Copyright (c) 1997 Stockholm Environment Institute.)

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