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Towards a balanced view of Arctic shipping:estimating economic impacts of emissions from increased traffic on the Northern Sea Route

机译：寻求北极航运的平衡观点：估算北海航线运输量增加带来的排放对经济的影响

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The extensive melting of Arctic sea ice driven by climate change provides opportunities for commercial shipping due to shorter travel distances of up to 40% between Asia and Europe. It has been estimated that around 5% of the world’s trade could be shipped through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in the Arctic alone under year-round and unhampered navigability, generating additional income for many European and East Asian countries. Our analysis shows that for Arctic sea ice conditions under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario and business restrictions facing shipping companies, NSR traffic will increase steadily from the mid-2030s onwards, although it will take over a century to reach the full capacity expected for ice-free conditions. However, in order to achieve a balanced view of Arctic shipping, it is important to include its detrimental environmental impacts, most notably emissions of short-lived pollutants such as black carbon, as well as CO2 and non-CO2 emissions associated with the additional economic growth enabled by NSR. The total climate feedback of NSR could contribute 0.05% (0.04%) to global mean temperature rise by 2100 under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), adding $2.15 trillion ($0.44 trillion) to the NPV of total impacts of climate change over the period until 2200 for the SSP2 socio-economic scenario. The climatic losses offset 33% (24.7%) of the total economic gains from NSR under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), with the biggest losses set to occur in Africa and India. These findings call for policy instruments aimed at reducing emissions from Arctic shipping and providing compensation to the affected regions.
机译：由于亚洲和欧洲之间的旅行距离缩短了40％，因此气候变化导致北极海冰的大量融化为商业运输提供了机会。据估计，仅常年和不受阻碍的通航能力，仅北极地区就可以通过北海航线（NSR）运送世界贸易的5％，这为许多欧洲和东亚国家带来了额外的收入。我们的分析表明，对于RCP8.5排放情景下的北极海冰条件和船公司面临的业务限制，从2030年代中期开始，NSR流量将稳步增长，尽管要花满一个世纪才能达到预期的冰容量无条件。但是，为了获得对北极航运的平衡看法，重要的是要包括其对环境的不利影响，尤其是黑碳等短寿命污染物的排放以及与经济增长相关的二氧化碳和非二氧化碳排放NSR带来的增长。在RCP8.5（RCP4.5）下，到2100年，NSR的总气候反馈可能对全球平均温度上升贡献0.05％（0.04％），使此期间气候变化的总NPV增加2.15万亿美元（0.44万亿美元） SSP2的社会经济情景直到2200年。在RCP8.5（RCP4.5）下，气候损失抵消了NSR带来的总经济收益的33％（24.7％），其中最大的损失定会发生在非洲和印度。这些发现要求制定旨在减少北极航运排放并向受灾地区提供补偿的政策工具。

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