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Intelligence in complex conflicts - does intelligence provide decision-makers with relevant knowledge? With a case study on the Dutch operation in Uruzgan province, Southern Afghanistan

机译：复杂冲突中的情报-情报是否为决策者提供相关知识？以荷兰在阿富汗南部乌鲁兹甘省的行动为例

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摘要

The shift from ‘industrial wars’ to the contemporary paradigm of ‘war amongst thepeople’ has had enormous consequences for the theory, concepts and ideas about howcontemporary wars (complex conflicts) are waged. What is the impact of this paradigmshift on the role and influence of intelligence? How relevant are intelligence reports forthe decision-making processes concerning these complex conflicts?The purpose of this study is to support the intelligence community in the process ofmaking intelligence more relevant for decision-making. It is aimed at creating a betterunderstanding of the intelligence needs of complex conflicts, and at identifyingbottlenecks and potential solutions.The fist part of this study provides a conceptual framework by discussing relevantconcepts of intelligence and complex conflicts. In the second part, the bottlenecks andpotential solutions are identified. This part of the study is conducted by using a singlecase study - the Dutch operation in southern Afghanistan.This study shows that a culture of ‘secrecy’ and an output-driven process within theDutch intelligence community has a negative effect on the relevance of intelligence fordecision-making. It further identifies a need for a closer relationship between thedecision-makers and the intelligence producers, and a more pro-active role for the latter.
机译：从“工业战争”到当代“人民之间的战争”范式的转变，对发动当代战争（复杂冲突）的理论，概念和思想产生了巨大的影响。这种范式转变对情报的作用和影响有什么影响？情报报告与涉及这些复杂冲突的决策过程之间的相关性如何？本研究的目的是在使情报与决策更加相关的过程中支持情报界。旨在更好地理解复杂冲突的情报需求，并确定瓶颈和潜在解决方案。本研究的第一部分通过讨论情报和复杂冲突的相关概念提供了一个概念框架。在第二部分中，确定了瓶颈和潜在的解决方案。该研究的这一部分是通过单例研究进行的-阿富汗南部的荷兰行动。该研究表明，“秘密”文化和荷兰情报界内部的输出驱动过程对情报决策的相关性具有负面影响。 -制造。它进一步确定了决策者和情报生产者之间需要更紧密的关系，并且需要后者发挥更积极的作用。

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    Van Vliet Arie;

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  • 年度 2010
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  • 正文语种 eng
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