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Combining qualitative and quantitative understanding for exploring cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Europe

机译：结合定性和定量理解，以探索欧洲跨部门气候变化的影响，适应和脆弱性

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Climate change will affect all sectors of society and the environment at all scales, ranging from the continental to the national and local. Decision-makers and other interested citizens need to be able to access reliable science-based information to help them respond to the risks of climate change impacts and assess opportunities for adaptation. Participatory integrated assessment (IA) tools combine knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines, take account of the value and importance of stakeholder ‘lay insight’ and facilitate a two-way iterative process of exploration of ‘what if’s’ to enable decision-makers to test ideas and improve their understanding of the complex issues surrounding adaptation to climate change. This paper describes the conceptual design of a participatory IA tool, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, based on a professionally facilitated stakeholder engagement process. The CLIMSAVE (climate change integrated methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe) Platform is a user-friendly, interactive web-based tool that allows stakeholders to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of sectors, including agriculture, forests, biodiversity, coasts, water resources and urban development. The linking of models for the different sectors enables stakeholders to see how their interactions could affect European landscape change. The relationship between choice, uncertainty and constraints is a key cross-cutting theme in the conduct of past participatory IA. Integrating scenario development processes with an interactive modelling platform is shown to allow the exploration of future uncertainty as a structural feature of such complex problems, encouraging stakeholders to explore adaptation choices within real-world constraints of future resource availability and environmental and institutional capacities, rather than seeking the ‘right’ answers.
机译：气候变化将影响从大陆到国家和地方的所有规模的社会和环境的各个部门。决策者和其他感兴趣的公民需要能够获得可靠的基于科学的信息，以帮助他们应对气候变化影响的风险并评估适应机会。参与式综合评估（IA）工具结合了来自不同科学学科的知识，考虑了利益相关者“外行洞察力”的价值和重要性，并促进了“假设”探索的双向迭代过程，以使决策者能够测试想法并提高他们对适应气候变化的复杂问题的理解。本文介绍了参与性IA工具CLIMSAVE IA平台的概念设计，该工具基于专业促进的利益相关者参与过程。 CLIMSAVE（欧洲跨部门适应和脆弱性的气候变化综合方法）平台是一种用户友好的，基于网络的交互式工具，可让利益相关者评估包括农业，森林，农业，生物多样性，海岸，水资源和城市发展。不同部门的模型链接使利益相关者能够了解他们的相互作用如何影响欧洲景观变化。选择，不确定性和约束之间的关系是过去参与性IA实施中的关键交叉主题。展示了将情景开发过程与交互式建模平台集成在一起，从而可以探索未来不确定性，将其作为此类复杂问题的结构特征，从而鼓励利益相关者在现实世界中对未来资源可用性以及环境和机构能力的限制内探索适应选择，而不是寻找“正确”的答案。

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