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A system dynamics analysis of policies to relieve an urban traffic congestion problem

机译：缓解城市交通拥堵问题的政策系统动力学分析

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摘要

In the last decade, the continual growth of air transport has resulted in overwhelming traffic congestion in most international airport access roads. This problem is a bottleneck in the development of airports which is regarded as a vital contributor to the economic sustainability of their respective cities. Many studies have been done to relieve the problem of congestion in access roads to airports. However, few of these studies have investigated the implications of these strategies on the different stakeholders in the system. In this study, a System Dynamics model is formulated to provide an understanding of some of the wider consequences of congestion-mitigating strategies in a system comprising airport access for a hypothetical city. This System Dynamics modelling approach offers an assessment platform for policy makers to study the short and long term system behaviour resulting from congestion-mitigation strategies. In particular, the implication of these strategies on the taxi industry livelihood is investigated, which besides the people involved in the industry, makes a significant contribution to an airport's business. The model is composed of three sectors: passengers and travel demand, taxis and private cars, and train. It deals with the congestion level in the road, the growth of passengers, investment in taxis, and the service availability of taxis. Simulations are performed under four policy scenarios aimed at alleviating congestion. The results indicated that, all policy interventions will have some undesirable effects on the taxi industry in terms of reduced profit and loss of jobs, each having a different level of impact. In addition, it was found that the timing of policy interventions has a significant effect on the magnitude of those outcomes. An earlier policy intervention to tackle the congestion leads not only to better conditions for the road in terms of traffic flow, but also less unfavourable effects on the livelihood of taxi drivers and operators. Accordingly, careful attention should be paid to the particular timing of policies and the timing of their implementation. The sensitivity analysis suggests that most parameters are insensitive to variations in parameters, except for one parameter; changes in this parameter had a big impact on the supply and demand for taxis and this in turn has a considerable impact on the viability of the taxi industry. The proper controlling of this variable will allow the amplitude of a shortage or surplus of taxis to be minimized. This thesis focused on certain socio-economic aspects of a transportation system and yielded insights into some aspects of the system which usually is neglected in solving transportation problems. It is hoped that the insights gained by the simulation results will lead to further understanding by decision makers about some of the wider implications of their proposals in solving transportation problems. Finally, the model in this study demonstrates the ability of System Thinking and System Dynamics methodology in the analysis of the dynamic behaviour of socio-economic systems which include complexity and multiple feedbacks.
机译：在过去的十年中，航空运输的持续增长导致大多数国际机场通道的交通拥挤。这个问题是机场发展的瓶颈，被认为是各自城市经济可持续发展的重要因素。已经进行了许多研究来缓解通往机场的道路拥堵的问题。但是，这些研究很少研究这些策略对系统中不同利益相关者的影响。在本研究中，建立了系统动力学模型以提供对缓解拥塞缓解策略的更广泛结果的理解，该系统包括一个假设城市的机场通道。这种系统动力学建模方法为决策者提供了一个评估平台，以研究由于拥塞缓解策略而导致的短期和长期系统行为。特别是，研究了这些策略对出租车行业生计的影响，除涉及行业的人员外，还为机场业务做出了重大贡献。该模型由三个部门组成：旅客和旅行需求，出租车和私家车以及火车。它涉及道路的拥挤程度，乘客的增长，出租车的投资以及出租车的服务可用性。在旨在缓解拥塞的四个策略方案下进行了模拟。结果表明，所有政策干预措施都会对滑行行业产生一些不良影响，因为它们会减少利润和减少工作机会，每一种都会产生不同程度的影响。此外，还发现政策干预的时机对这些成果的规模具有重大影响。较早采取的解决交通拥堵的政策干预措施，不仅可以为道路上的交通流量带来更好的条件，而且还可以减少对出租车司机和操作员的生计的不利影响。因此，应特别注意政策的具体时机和实施时机。敏感性分析表明，除一个参数外，大多数参数对参数的变化不敏感。该参数的变化对出租车的供求有很大影响，这反过来对出租车行业的生存能力也有很大影响。对该变量的适当控制将使出租车的短缺或过剩的幅度最小化。本文着眼于运输系统的某些社会经济方面，并对系统的某些方面产生了见解，而这些方面通常在解决运输问题时被忽视。希望通过模拟结果获得的见解将使决策者对他们的提案在解决运输问题方面的更广泛含义有进一步的了解。最后，本研究中的模型证明了系统思维和系统动力学方法在分析社会经济系统动态行为（包括复杂性和多重反馈）方面的能力。

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    Jahed Shiran S;

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