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Impact of climate change on tree-ring growth of Scots pine, common beech and pedunculate oak in northeastern Germany

机译：气候变化对德国东北部苏格兰松树，普通山毛榉木，普通山毛榉树木的树木生长的影响

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Tree growth depends, among other factors, largely on the prevailing climatic conditions. Therefore, changes to tree growth patterns are to be expected under climate change. Here, we analyze the tree-ring growth response of three major European tree species to projected future climate across a climatic (mostly precipitation) gradient in northeastern Germany. We used monthly data for temperature, precipitation, and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) over multiple time scales (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) to construct models of tree-ring growth for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) at three pure stands, and for common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) at three mature mixed stands. The regression models were derived using a two-step approach based on partial least squares regression (PLSR) to extract potentially well explaining variables followed by ordinary least squares regression (OLSR) to consolidate the models to the least number of variables while retaining high explanatory power. The stability of the models was tested through a comprehensive calibration-verification scheme. All models were successfully verified with R²s ranging from 0.21 for the western pine stand to 0.62 for the beech stand in the east. For growth prediction, climate data forecasted until 2100 by the regional climate model WETTREG2010 based on the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario was used. For beech and oak, growth rates will likely decrease until the end of the 21st century. For pine, modeled growth trends vary and range from a slight growth increase to a weak decrease in growth rates. The climatic gradient across the study area will possibly affect the future growth of oak with larger growth reductions towards the drier east. For beech, site-specific adaptations seem to override the influence of the climatic gradient. We conclude that Scots pine has great potential to remain resilient to projected climate change without any greater impairment, whereas common beech and pedunculate oak will likely face lesser growth under the expected warmer and dryer climate conditions. The results call for an adaptation of forest management to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for beech and oak.
机译：树立成长依赖于其他因素，主要是普遍存在的气候条件。因此，在气候变化下预期对树增长模式的变化。在这里，我们分析了三个主要欧洲树种的树木生长反应，以在德国东北部的气候（大多降水）梯度上投射了未来的气候。我们使用每月的温度，降水和标准化降水蒸发蒸腾指数（SPEI）在多次尺度（1,3,6,12和24个月）上，以构建苏格兰松树的树木生长模型（Pinus Sylvestris L. 。）在三个纯粹的立场，以及普通山毛榉（Fagus Sylvatica L）和三个成熟混合架的橡树（栎鞋L.）队。使用基于部分最小二乘回归（PLSR）的两步方法来导出回归模型，以提取潜在的解释变量，然后是普通的最小二乘回归（OLSR），以将模型整合到最小数量的变量，同时保持高说明性。通过全面的校准验证方案测试模型的稳定性。所有型号均以0.21为0.21的r2验证，为西部的山脉站在东方的0.62。对于增长预测，利用基于A1B政府间气候变化小组（IPCC）排放场景的区域气候模型Wettreg2010之前预测的气候数据预测到2100。对于山毛榉和橡木，直到21世纪末，增长率可能会降低。对于松树，建模的增长趋势各不相同，范围从略微增长增加到增长率的弱幅下降。研究区域的气候梯度可能影响橡木的未来增长，增长较大的增长向东。对于山毛榉，特定于现场的适应似乎覆盖了气候梯度的影响。我们得出结论，苏格兰杉木对预计的气候变化具有很大的潜力，没有任何更大的损害，而普通山毛榉和Pedunculate橡木可能会在预期的温暖和干燥机气候条件下面临较小的增长。结果要求改编森林管理，减轻山毛榉和橡木气候变化的负面影响。

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