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The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows

机译:2016年的北极海冰封面:一年的记录低高,低于预期的低点

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摘要

The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured recordlow monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September)extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts.Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state interms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the seaice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthlyArctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude andannual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely useddatasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration toextent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea icearea over sea ice extent to analyse the relative "compactness" of theArctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summerof 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent.Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to havedriven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficientto cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent.We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes(thermodynamics/dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/areaestimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensificationacross the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different productsshow significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, includingrecord-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Ourresults also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, NorthAtlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strongsea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer icecompactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be amore reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, "New Arctic", seaice regime.
机译:2016年的北极海冰覆盖率非常值得注意,因为它是特色的记录在年初,夏季(九月)的初期低每月海冰块大多数季节性预测高于预期的程度。在这里,我们探索2016年北极海冰状态其每月海冰盖的条款,将其放在海的背景下自2000年以来观察到的冰条件。我们展示了每月的敏感性北极海冰范围和面积估计,就其幅度和年度排名,到冰浓度输入数据(使用两个广泛使用的数据集)和用于将集中度转换为的平均方法范围(日常或每月程度计算)。我们使用海冰的估计海冰范围内的区域分析了相对“紧凑型”北极海冰盖,夏季突出了异常低紧凑型2016年,促成了9月冰范围高于预期的。在八月期间进入北冰洋的两个旋风似乎有驱动这种低浓度/紧凑性冰盖,但不足以引起更广泛的融化和新的记录低9月冰范围。我们使用集中预算来探索地区和流程(热力学/动态)有助于每月2016年的范围/地区估计突出显示,在其他方面,快速冰加集北极中心到9月。两种不同的产品2016年显示北冰洋的显着早期熔体发作,包括北极地区北大西洋部门的纪录初期融化。我们的结果还显示2016年北极中心,北方的历史迟到了冻结特别是大西洋和阿拉斯加北极部门,与强大有关2016年后不久出现的海面温度异常最低限度(10月份)。我们探索这一低夏季冰的含义季节性预测的紧凑性,暗示海冰区可能是一个在这个更季节性的“新的北极”,海上,预测预测更可靠的公制冰制。

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